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My fellow Singaporeans, I've said before that the world is changing in ways that will disadvantage small open economies like Singapore. Some had previously questioned this assessment. But the recent "Liberation Day" announcement by the US leaves no room for doubt. It marks a seismic change in the global order. The era of rules - based globalisation and free trade is over. We are entering a new phase, one that is more arbitrary, protectionist, and dangerous.

For decades, the US was the bedrock for the free market economies of the world. It championed free trade, and led efforts to build a multilateral trading system, anchored by clear rules and norms, where countries could achieve win - win benefits through trade. This WTO system brought unprecedented stability and prosperity to the world—and to the US itself. To be clear, the system is not perfect. Singapore, and many others, have long called for reform to update the rules and to make the system better. But what the US is doing now is not reform. It is abandoning the entire system it had created. Its new approach of reciprocal tariffs, country by country, is a complete rejection of the WTO framework. The US has placed Singapore in the lowest base tier with a tariff of 10%.

So the direct impact on us may be limited for now. But there are wider and more profound consequences. If other countries adopt the same approach as the US, abandoning the WTO, and trading only on their own preferred terms, country by country, it will spell trouble for all nations, especially small ones like Singapore. We risk being squeezed out, marginalised and left behind. 

We can also expect a strong, global response to America's tariffs. Singapore has decided not to impose retaliatory tariffs. But other countries may not exercise the same restraint. The likelihood of a full - blown global trade war is growing. The impact of the higher tariffs, plus the uncertainty of what other countries may do next, will weigh heavily on the global economy. International trade and investments will suffer, and global growth will slow. Singapore will take a bigger hit than others, because of our heavy reliance on trade. 

The last time the world experienced something like this was in the 1930s. Trade wars escalated into armed conflict, and eventually the Second World War. No one can say how the current situation will unfold in the coming months or years. But we must be clear - eyed about the dangers that are building up in the world. Global institutions are getting weaker, international norms are eroding. More and more countries will act based on narrow self - interest and use force or pressure to get their way. This is the harsh reality of our world today.

We will stay vigilant. We will build up our capabilities. We will strengthen our network of partnerships with like - minded countries. We are more ready than many other countries, with our reserves, our cohesion, and our resolve. But we must brace ourselves for more shocks to come. The global calm and stability we once knew will not return anytime soon. We cannot expect that the rules which protected small states will still hold. 

I'm sharing this with you so that we can all be mentally prepared. So that we will not be caught off guard. Let us not be lulled into complacency. The risks are real and stakes are high. The road ahead will be harder, but if we stay resolute and united, Singapore will continue to hold its own in this troubled world.

新加坡同胞们，我曾经说过，世界正在发生变化，其方式将不利于像新加坡这样的小型开放经济体，这标志着全球秩序正在发生巨变。以规则为基础的全球化和自由贸易时代已经结束。我们正在进入一个更加专断、保护主义和危险的新阶段。  几十年来，美国一直是世界自由市场经济的基石。它倡导自由贸易，并带头努力建立一个以明确的规则和规范为基础的多边贸易体系，从而使各国能够通过贸易实现双赢。世贸组织体系为世界——也为美国自身——带来了前所未有的稳定和繁荣。  明确地说，这一体系并不完美。新加坡和许多其他国家长期以来一直呼吁进行改革，更新规则，使这一体系更加完善。但美国现在做的不是改革。它是在放弃自己创建的整个体系。它所采取的逐国互惠征收关税的新做法，是对世贸组织框架的完全否定。美国已将新加坡列入最低基本税级，征收10%的关税。

因此，目前对我们的直接影响可能有限。但会产生更广泛、更深远的影响。如果其他国家采取与美国相同的做法，放弃世贸组织，只按自己喜欢的条件逐国进行贸易，那么这将给所有国家带来麻烦，尤其是像新加坡这样的小国。我们将面临被挤出、边缘化和落在后面的风险。

我们还可以期待全球对美国关税的强烈反应。新加坡已经决定不征收报复性关税，但其他国家可能不会保持同样的克制，全球贸易战全面爆发的可能性正在上升。较高关税的影响，加上其他国家下一步可能采取什么行动的不确定性，将对全球经济造成沉重打击。国际贸易和投资将受到影响，全球经济增长将放缓。新加坡将比其他国家受到更大的冲击，因为我们严重依赖贸易。

世界上一次出现类似情况还是在20世纪30年代。贸易战升级为武装冲突，最终爆发了第二次世界大战。谁也说不准未来几个月或一年的局势会如何发展。但我们必须清醒地认识到世界上正在积聚的危险。全球机构正在变得越来越弱，国际准则正在受到侵蚀。越来越多的国家将基于狭隘的自身利益行事，并利用威胁或压力来达到自己的目的。这就是当今世界的残酷现实。

我们将保持警惕；我们将加强我们的能力；我们将加强与志同道合国家的伙伴关系网络。凭借我们的储备、我们的凝聚力和我们的决心，我们比许多其他国家准备得更充分。但我们必须做好准备，迎接更多的冲击。我们曾经熟悉的全球平静与稳定不会很快回来。我们不能指望保护小国的规则仍然有效。

我与你们分享这些，是为了让我们都做好心理准备。这样我们就不会措手不及。让我们不要沾沾自喜。风险是真实的，赌注是高昂的。前方的道路将更加艰辛，但只要我们坚定不移，团结一致，新加坡将继续在这个动荡的世界中保持自己的地位 。

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